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- What is your investment process?
- Can you describe briefly how you assess whether a particular security presents a trading opportunity?
- Do you consider your approach “top-down” or “bottom-up”?
- What are the main risks to your investment approach? What market conditions would affect your strategy adversely?
- How do your returns relate to the returns of other types of investments?
- Please address the shorting of stocks
- Please describe the use of leverage in the fund
- Talk a bit about your risk management
- What level of volatility should an investor expect in your fund?
- You deal in options, which are derivatives. Do you run the risk of blow-up like all the derivatives funds that have made it in the papers in recent years?
- What would you say your edge is? What differentiates you from other managers?
- Do you ever sell volatility, or options?
- How will you address the question of liquidity?
- You mentioned that leverage grows as positions become profitable. Can you give an example how this works?
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What is your investment process?
Our investment process is highly selective, and involves screening the universe of companies with listed options.
- We continuously monitor and evaluate the volatility of individual stocks as well as volatility of sectors (e.g. banking, airlines, software, etc.)
- When our system identifies an
opportunity, we check the fundamentals of the company in relation
to its volatility characteristics
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Can you describe briefly how
you assess whether a particular security presents a trading opportunity?
We look at volatility from a number of different angles. We compare implied volatility
to actual volatility and to our own proprietary volatility estimate; we perform historical
analysis of actual and implied volatility; we compare the volatility of the company to the
volatility of the peer group, and the volatility of the peer group to the volatility of the
market; we analyze how volatility varies with different expirations (i.e., are short term
options more, or less, expensive than long term options?) and with different strikes (i.e.,
are options at-the-money more, or less, expensive than options out-of-the-money?).
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Do you consider your approach top-down or bottom-up?
Our approach is quantitatively driven but comprises also a fundamental component.
The evaluation of the volatility structure is based on quantitative considerations;
however, checking fundamentals of a company is a bottom-up component. Companies are
fluid creatures and their volatility can change dramatically. For example, a company
bid for cash will see its actual and implied volatilities collapse but any comparisons
with historical volatilities will be misleading.
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What are the main risks to your investment approach? What market conditions would affect your strategy adversely?
The investment approach would work well under most market conditions.
Adverse market conditions would be a combination of
- declining volatility
- a steadily rising market that moves in small increments
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How do your returns relate to the returns of other types of investments?
Our approach can produce returns in up or down markets. Our returns are highly negatively
correlated with the returns of most major markets or investment strategies: we tend to produce
large returns when most investment strategies perform poorly. One can use our returns to diversify
risk of long equity portfolios and improve returns.
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Please address the shorting of stocks
We never take a view on a stock moving up or down: all positions are always
market-neutral with respect to the underlying assets. The core positions are options;
we use stocks only to neutralize the exposure of the options to the prices of the underlying
stocks. We do not short stocks outright: for every stock we are short, we hold
an offsetting options position where we are long the stock.
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Please describe the use of leverage in the fund
An attractive feature of our approach is that leverage grows as positions become
profitable, and leverage falls as positions become non-profitable. We make conservative
use of leverage. We do not typically initiate leveraged positions. As positions become profitable
and leverage increases, we decrease the leverage by taking profits and lightening positions.
Most of the time, leverage ranges between 70% and 125%; it moved up to 300% in two occasions
(August 1998 and April 2000) during the Russian default crisis and Nasdaq collapse respectively.
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Talk a bit about your risk management
Our strategy is a conservative long-term wealth accumulation strategy. For this reason,
we spend most of our time focusing on risk management, which can be summarized in the
following procedures:
- Investments are in liquid instruments (exchange traded options and liquid equities)
- Each strategy (theme) is implemented through a number of different equity investments
- Loss limits are pre-determined and tightly enforced for every position
- The capital at risk in any one strategy does not exceed 15% of fund equity
- The capital at risk in any single equity investment does not exceed 5% of fund equity
- Strategies are stress-tested continuously with highly unlikely, extreme scenarios
- The portfolio is well diversified, and constantly monitored with respect to its risk concentration across underlying economic factors
- The use of leverage is conservative
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What level of volatility should an investor expect in your fund?
Volatility, as an asset, is volatile. Nevertheless, the volatility in the fund has been
comparable to the volatility of the equity market as a whole. More importantly, the
volatility in our returns comes from large positive returns, whereas for most investment
strategies volatility comes from large negative returns. Volatility from large gains,
instead of large losses, is highly desirable for any investment strategy.
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You deal in options, which are derivatives. Do you run the risk of blow-up like all the derivatives funds that have made it in the papers in recent years?
We deal in derivatives, but our approach is diametrically opposed to the approach of
most funds that blew-up. Most funds that blew-up were exposed to unexpected events, or
sharp moves upwards in volatility; major surprises were liable to affect them adversely.
In our case, losses tend to come during quiet market spells, sometimes over prolonged periods of time, and gains
tend to come in large amounts suddenly. Our investors can potentially profit when unexpected events
occur. Our approach (investment philosophy and conservative use of leverage) makes a blow-up
extremely unlikely.
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What would you say your edge is? What differentiates you from other managers?
Our strategy is unique because our investment approach is systematic and highly selective,
and blends a fundamental with a quantitative approach. A lot of people trade options, and a
lot of people adhere to event-driven investing. But most people who trade options rely on
black boxes, or on purely quantitative systems; and many people who pursue event-driven
investing are susceptible to event risks. For example, the best-known event-driven
strategy, risk-arb, exposes investors to the risk of surprises. We are not aware of many fund
managers that capture event risk by being, systematically and selectively, long volatility.
Our edge lies in (a) the uniqueness of our strategy, (b) our professional experience and
academic credentials, and (c) the rigor and discipline of our approach.
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Do you ever sell volatility, or options?
We do not sell volatility, because that would be contrary to our strategy of capturing the
effects of events. We sometimes sell options, but we always maintain positive exposure to volatility.
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How will you address the question of liquidity?
Liquidity is one of the most distinguishing characteristics of our strategy. We constantly
provide liquidity to the market, and, therefore, receive abundant liquidity from the market.
In times of extreme market conditions, we tend to move in the opposite direction from the rest
of the market. Also, we invest only in liquid assets.
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You mentioned that leverage grows as
positions become profitable. Can you give an example how this works?
Let’s assume the fund has $100 in equity and makes only one investment: buys an
out-of-the money put on a stock. Let’s assume the fund spends $90 to buy the put,
and the remaining $10 to buy the “right” amount of stock so that the portfolio is
market-neutral. At this point, the fund has no exposure to the price of the stock,
has $100 in equity and $100 in assets (the value of the option plus the value of the stock).
Leverage is at 100%.
Suppose now that the stock moves sharply lower. The value of the
put rises (say, to $140) and the fund becomes exposed to the price of the stock
(because the option now depends on the price of the stock more than before).
The fund has to buy more stock (say, $50 worth) to offset the additional exposure
that the option has generated. The equity in the fund is still $100, so the fund has
to borrow money to purchase the additional stock. The value of the assets becomes $200
(=$140 for the option + $10 for the original stock + $50 for the new stock), and
leverage grows to 150% (because the fund borrows $50).
As core positions (i.e., options) become
profitable, the fund has to hedge more valuable assets with larger
equity positions. Assets grow (both options and equities), and
leverage goes up.
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| Disclaimer Past performance is no indication of future performance.
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